MLS — Weekly Betting Report
2026-07-16 · 2 completed in the previous 7 days · 16 upcoming in the next 7 days
Player-led scoreline model · one bivariate-Poisson / Dixon–Coles matrix per fixture · odds shown in American format
Upcoming edges
de-vig edge ≥ 3 pts · odds ≤ 6.0 · up to one 1X2 and one O/U 2.5 play per fixture| Fixture | Market | Pick | Model fair | Book | Edge | EV | Stake |
|---|
| FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 1x2 | FC Cincinnati | +185 | +294 | +11.0% | +38.4% | $20 (2.0u) |
| LA Galaxy v Los Angeles FC | 1x2 | LA Galaxy | +111 | +188 | +14.0% | +36.6% | $20 (2.0u) |
| Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United FC | 1x2 | Sporting Kansas City | +176 | +272 | +10.6% | +34.6% | $20 (2.0u) |
| Seattle Sounders FC v Portland Timbers FC | ou25 | Under 2.5 | +116 | +183 | +13.2% | +30.9% | $20 (2.0u) |
| Seattle Sounders FC v Portland Timbers FC | 1x2 | Draw | +315 | +395 | +5.0% | +19.4% | $3 (0.3u) |
| Houston Dynamo FC v D.C. United | 1x2 | D.C. United | +272 | +331 | +4.9% | +15.8% | $12 (1.2u) |
| Austin FC v Seattle Sounders FC | 1x2 | Austin FC | +229 | +281 | +5.5% | +15.8% | $14 (1.4u) |
| Portland Timbers FC v FC Dallas | ou25 | Under 2.5 | +129 | +161 | +7.8% | +14.2% | $20 (2.0u) |
| Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake | 1x2 | Real Salt Lake | +289 | +316 | +4.0% | +6.9% | $5 (0.5u) |
| New England Revolution v Toronto FC | ou25 | Under 2.5 | -105 | +106 | +5.7% | +5.6% | $13 (1.3u) |
| Nashville SC v CF Montréal | 1x2 | Draw | +321 | +342 | +3.3% | +5.1% | $4 (0.4u) |
| Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United FC | ou25 | Under 2.5 | +130 | +140 | +4.6% | +4.7% | $13 (1.3u) |
| Charlotte FC v Atlanta United FC | 1x2 | Atlanta United FC | +322 | +341 | +3.4% | +4.5% | $3 (0.3u) |
| Colorado Rapids v San Diego FC | 1x2 | Colorado Rapids | +102 | +110 | +4.1% | +3.9% | $9 (0.9u) |
| LA Galaxy v St. Louis City SC | ou25 | Under 2.5 | +136 | +141 | +3.8% | +2.1% | $4 (0.4u) |
| Nashville SC v CF Montréal | ou25 | Under 2.5 | +138 | +139 | +3.1% | +0.3% | $0 (0.0u) |
Previous games
completed MLS fixtures in the prior 7 calendar days| Kickoff | Match | Score | ASA xG | Frozen pre-game projection |
|---|
| Thu Jul 16, 6:30 PM Central Daylight Time | CF Montréal v Toronto FC | 0-0 | 1.08–0.62 | No pre-game lock captured |
| Thu Jul 16, 7:30 PM Central Daylight Time | St. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas City | 3-2 | 3.06–1.4 | No pre-game lock captured |
Upcoming matches
scheduled MLS fixtures in the next 7 calendar days
Seattle Sounders FC vs Portland Timbers FC
Thu Jul 16, 9:30 PM Central Daylight Time · Seattle Sounders FC home
Seattle Sounders FC — Overall #3/30 · Att #13 · Def #1
Portland Timbers FC — Overall #23/30 · Att #23 · Def #21
Expected goals: 1.85 – 1.0 · likely: 1-1 (11.2%) · 1-0 (10.5%) · 2-0 (9.8%)
| 1X2 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Seattle Sounders FC | 56.8% | -131 | -208 | 64.0% | -7.2% | -16.0% |
| Draw ◇ value | 24.1% | +315 | +395 | 19.1% | +5.0% | +19.4% |
| Portland Timbers FC | 19.1% | +424 | +460 | 16.9% | +2.2% | +7.0% |
| O/U 2.5 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Over 2.5 | 53.8% | -116 | -254 | 67.0% | -13.2% | -25.0% |
| Under 2.5 ◇ value | 46.2% | +116 | +183 | 33.0% | +13.2% | +30.9% |
Lineups confirmed > projected > last used > rating baseline
Seattle Sounders FC confirmed
| GK | Andrew Thomas | 96 |
| CB | Jackson Ragen | 87 |
| CB | Antino Lopez | 98 |
| FB | Kalani Kossa-Rienzi | 93 |
| DM | Snyder Brunell | 91 |
| DM | Hassani Dotson | 67 |
| W | Paul Rothrock | 41 |
| AM | Albert Rusnák | 71 |
| W | Jesús Ferreira | 63 |
| ST | Jordan Morris | 93 |
| ? | Nouhou Tolo | imp |
Portland Timbers FC confirmed
| GK | James Pantemis | 89 |
| FB | Jimer Fory | 61 |
| CB | Finn Surman | 100 |
| CB | Kamal Miller | 41 |
| FB | Brandon Bye | 72 |
| DM | Cole Bassett | 99 |
| DM | Diego Chará | 55 |
| W | Ariel Lassiter | 8 |
| AM | David Da Costa | 11 |
| W | Antony | 23 |
| ST | Kevin Kelsy | 56 |
Model score 0–100 within position group; * = limited minutes. “imp” means no matching ASA contributor, so the player is not assigned a synthetic score. Lineups are report context only until an MLS historical-XI calibration gate can test a pricing adjustment.
Nashville SC vs Atlanta United FC
Fri Jul 17, 7:10 PM Central Daylight Time · Nashville SC home
Nashville SC — Overall #8/30 · Att #12 · Def #3
Atlanta United FC — Overall #27/30 · Att #25 · Def #23
Expected goals: 1.95 – 1.03 · likely: 1-1 (10.6%) · 2-1 (9.8%) · 1-0 (9.6%)
| 1X2 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Nashville SC | 58.3% | -140 | -192 | 63.0% | -4.7% | -11.4% |
| Draw | 23.0% | +334 | +353 | 21.2% | +1.9% | +4.4% |
| Atlanta United FC | 18.6% | +437 | +506 | 15.8% | +2.8% | +12.9% |
| O/U 2.5 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Over 2.5 | 57.1% | -133 | -144 | 55.7% | +1.4% | -3.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.9% | +133 | +113 | 44.3% | -1.4% | -8.6% |
Lineups confirmed > projected > last used > rating baseline
Nashville SC baseline
| CB | Maxwell Woledzi | 7 |
| FB | Daniel Lovitz | 26 |
| CB | Jeisson Palacios | 46 |
| FB | Andy Najar | 35 |
| ST | Hany Mukhtar | 94 |
| W | Cristian Espinoza | 74 |
| W | Warren Madrigal | 42 |
| GK | Brian Schwake | 98 |
| CM | Matthew Corcoran | 6 |
| CM | Edvard Tagseth | 1 |
| CM | Patrick Yazbek | 77 |
Atlanta United FC baseline
| CB | Enea Mihaj | 33 |
| FB | Elías Baez | 9 |
| FB | Tomás Jacob | 14 |
| CB | Stian Gregersen | 85 |
| W | Aleksey Miranchuk | 38 |
| ST | Emmanuel Latte Lath | 68 |
| W | Miguel Almirón | 72 |
| GK | Lucas Hoyos | 30 |
| DM | Tristan Muyumba | 69 |
| CM | Cooper Sanchez | 13 |
| CM | Matías Galarza | 75 |
Model score 0–100 within position group; * = limited minutes. “imp” means no matching ASA contributor, so the player is not assigned a synthetic score. Lineups are report context only until an MLS historical-XI calibration gate can test a pricing adjustment.
LA Galaxy vs Los Angeles FC
Fri Jul 17, 9:25 PM Central Daylight Time · LA Galaxy home
LA Galaxy — Overall #6/30 · Att #7 · Def #6
Los Angeles FC — Overall #5/30 · Att #9 · Def #4
Expected goals: 1.74 – 1.29 · likely: 1-1 (11.3%) · 2-1 (9.3%) · 1-0 (8.1%)
| 1X2 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| LA Galaxy ◇ value | 47.4% | +111 | +188 | 33.5% | +14.0% | +36.6% |
| Draw | 25.0% | +300 | +285 | 25.0% | +0.0% | -3.7% |
| Los Angeles FC | 27.5% | +263 | +132 | 41.5% | -14.0% | -36.1% |
| O/U 2.5 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Over 2.5 | 58.0% | -138 | -180 | 60.0% | -2.0% | -9.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.0% | +138 | +133 | 40.0% | +2.0% | -1.9% |
Lineups confirmed > projected > last used > rating baseline
LA Galaxy baseline
| CB | Justin Haak | 87 |
| FB | John Nelson | 65 |
| CB | Jakob Glesnes | 79 |
| FB | Mauricio Cuevas | 71 |
| W | Gabriel Pec | 96 |
| AM | Marco Reus | 89 |
| W | Joseph Paintsil | 90 |
| GK | JT Marcinkowski | 57 |
| DM | Edwin Cerrillo | 19 |
| CM | Lucas Sanabria | 59 |
| CM | Elijah Wynder | 61 |
Los Angeles FC baseline
| CB | Nkosi Tafari | 73 |
| FB | Eddie Segura | 31 |
| CB | Ryan Porteous | 46 |
| FB | Ryan Hollingshead | 58 |
| W | Dénis Bouanga | 100 |
| ST | Son Heung-Min | 92 |
| AM | Timothy Tillman | 1 |
| GK | Hugo Lloris | 67 |
| DM | Mark Delgado | 93 |
| DM | Mathieu Choinière | 46 |
| DM | Stephen Eustáquio | 50 |
Model score 0–100 within position group; * = limited minutes. “imp” means no matching ASA contributor, so the player is not assigned a synthetic score. Lineups are report context only until an MLS historical-XI calibration gate can test a pricing adjustment.
FC Cincinnati vs Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Wed Jul 22, 6:30 PM Central Daylight Time · FC Cincinnati home
FC Cincinnati — Overall #16/30 · Att #4 · Def #27
Vancouver Whitecaps FC — Overall #1/30 · Att #2 · Def #2
Expected goals: 1.72 – 1.89 · likely: 1-1 (9.2%) · 1-2 (8.2%) · 2-1 (7.4%)
| 1X2 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| FC Cincinnati ◇ value | 35.1% | +185 | +294 | 24.1% | +11.0% | +38.4% |
| Draw | 23.0% | +336 | +318 | 22.7% | +0.2% | -4.0% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 41.9% | +139 | -127 | 53.1% | -11.2% | -25.0% |
| O/U 2.5 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Over 2.5 | 69.5% | -228 | -286 | 69.7% | -0.2% | -6.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.5% | +228 | +210 | 30.3% | +0.2% | -5.4% |
Lineups confirmed > projected > last used > rating baseline
FC Cincinnati projected
| GK | Roman Celentano | 46 |
| CB | Matt Miazga | 4 |
| CB | Miles Robinson | 75 |
| FB | Ender Echenique | 62 |
| CM | Samuel Gidi | 16 |
| CM | Obinna Nwobodo | 30 |
| CM | Gerardo Valenzuela | 89 |
| CM | Pavel Bucha | 66 |
| AM | Evander | 93 |
| ST | Kévin Denkey | 91 |
| ST | Kenji Mboma Dem | 48 |
Vancouver Whitecaps FC baseline
| CB | Tristan Blackmon | 10 |
| CB | Mathías Laborda | 48 |
| FB | Édier Ocampo | 82 |
| FB | Tate Johnson | 78 |
| ST | Brian White | 99 |
| W | Jeevan Badwal | 32 |
| AM | Thomas Müller | 91 |
| GK | Yohei Takaoka | 59 |
| DM | Sebastian Berhalter | 97 |
| DM | Andrés Cubas | 36 |
| DM | Oliver Larraz | 58 |
Model score 0–100 within position group; * = limited minutes. “imp” means no matching ASA contributor, so the player is not assigned a synthetic score. Lineups are report context only until an MLS historical-XI calibration gate can test a pricing adjustment.
New England Revolution vs Toronto FC
Wed Jul 22, 6:30 PM Central Daylight Time · New England Revolution home
New England Revolution — Overall #24/30 · Att #27 · Def #14
Toronto FC — Overall #25/30 · Att #28 · Def #11
Expected goals: 1.53 – 1.08 · likely: 1-1 (12.4%) · 1-0 (10.8%) · 2-1 (9.0%)
| 1X2 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| New England Revolution | 46.5% | +115 | -102 | 48.1% | -1.6% | -8.0% |
| Draw | 27.1% | +268 | +271 | 25.7% | +1.5% | +0.7% |
| Toronto FC | 26.4% | +279 | +262 | 26.3% | +0.1% | -4.4% |
| O/U 2.5 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Over 2.5 | 48.7% | +105 | -138 | 54.4% | -5.7% | -16.0% |
| Under 2.5 ◇ value | 51.3% | -105 | +106 | 45.6% | +5.7% | +5.6% |
Lineups confirmed > projected > last used > rating baseline
New England Revolution baseline
| FB | Will Sands | 77 |
| CB | Mamadou Fofana | 96 |
| CB | Ethan Kohler | 6 |
| FB | Ilay Feingold | 13 |
| AM | Carles Gil | 77 |
| ST | Dor Turgeman | 10 |
| W | Luca Langoni | 15 |
| GK | Matt Turner | 100 |
| DM | Brooklyn Raines | 10 |
| DM | Alhassan Yusuf | 44 |
| DM | Matt Polster | 29 |
Toronto FC baseline
| FB | Richie Laryea | 81 |
| CB | Walker Zimmerman | 94 |
| CB | Zane Monlouis | 25 |
| FB | Kobe Franklin | 89 |
| W | Dániel Sallói | 24 |
| AM | José Cifuentes | 9 |
| W | Derrick Etienne Jr. | 8 |
| GK | Luka Gavran | 2 |
| DM | Jonathan Osorio | 64 |
| DM | Alonso Coello | 88 |
| CM | Antone Bossenberry | 25* |
Model score 0–100 within position group; * = limited minutes. “imp” means no matching ASA contributor, so the player is not assigned a synthetic score. Lineups are report context only until an MLS historical-XI calibration gate can test a pricing adjustment.
Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls
Wed Jul 22, 6:30 PM Central Daylight Time · Philadelphia Union home
Philadelphia Union — Overall #15/30 · Att #19 · Def #12
New York Red Bulls — Overall #26/30 · Att #11 · Def #29
Expected goals: 2.06 – 1.31 · likely: 1-1 (9.7%) · 2-1 (9.4%) · 2-0 (7.3%)
| 1X2 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Philadelphia Union | 54.3% | -119 | -141 | 55.4% | -1.0% | -7.1% |
| Draw | 22.4% | +347 | +324 | 22.3% | +0.1% | -5.0% |
| New York Red Bulls | 23.3% | +330 | +325 | 22.3% | +1.0% | -1.1% |
| O/U 2.5 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Over 2.5 | 65.1% | -187 | -217 | 63.9% | +1.3% | -4.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.9% | +187 | +158 | 36.1% | -1.3% | -10.0% |
Lineups confirmed > projected > last used > rating baseline
Philadelphia Union projected
| GK | Andre Blake | 50 |
| CB | Olwethu Makhanya | 70 |
| FB | Nathan Harriel | 92 |
| CM | Danley Jean Jacques | 94 |
| CM | Jovan Lukić | 60 |
| W | Indiana Vassilev | 2 |
| W | Cavan Sullivan | 51 |
| ST | Bruno Damiani | 60 |
| ST | Milan Iloski | 88 |
| ? | Francis Westfield | imp |
| ? | Japhet Sery | imp |
New York Red Bulls baseline
| FB | Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty | 69 |
| CB | Dylan Nealis | 38 |
| FB | Matthew Dos Santos | 7 |
| CB | Robert Voloder | 23 |
| ST | Julian Hall | 82 |
| W | Jorge Ruvalcaba | 70 |
| W | Cade Cowell | 67 |
| GK | Ethan Horvath | 15 |
| DM | Adri Mehmeti | 63 |
| CM | Ronald Donkor | 83 |
| CM | Emil Forsberg | 99 |
Model score 0–100 within position group; * = limited minutes. “imp” means no matching ASA contributor, so the player is not assigned a synthetic score. Lineups are report context only until an MLS historical-XI calibration gate can test a pricing adjustment.
Charlotte FC vs Atlanta United FC
Wed Jul 22, 7:15 PM Central Daylight Time · Charlotte FC home
Charlotte FC — Overall #18/30 · Att #17 · Def #19
Atlanta United FC — Overall #27/30 · Att #25 · Def #23
Expected goals: 1.81 – 1.17 · likely: 1-1 (11.2%) · 2-1 (9.6%) · 1-0 (8.8%)
| 1X2 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Charlotte FC | 51.8% | -108 | -165 | 55.8% | -3.9% | -16.8% |
| Draw | 24.5% | +308 | +273 | 24.0% | +0.5% | -8.5% |
| Atlanta United FC ◇ value | 23.7% | +322 | +341 | 20.3% | +3.4% | +4.5% |
| O/U 2.5 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Over 2.5 | 57.1% | -133 | -158 | 57.0% | +0.1% | -6.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.9% | +133 | +116 | 43.0% | -0.1% | -7.2% |
Lineups confirmed > projected > last used > rating baseline
Charlotte FC baseline
| FB | Nathan Byrne | 5 |
| CB | Morrison Agyemang | 86 |
| CB | Tim Ream | 24 |
| FB | Harry Toffolo | 10 |
| AM | Pep Biel | 85 |
| W | Wilfried Zaha | 55 |
| ST | Idan Toklomati | 81 |
| GK | Kristijan Kahlina | 78 |
| DM | Ashley Westwood | 78 |
| DM | Djibril Diani | 65 |
| DM | Brandt Bronico | 22 |
Atlanta United FC baseline
| CB | Enea Mihaj | 33 |
| FB | Elías Baez | 9 |
| FB | Tomás Jacob | 14 |
| CB | Stian Gregersen | 85 |
| W | Aleksey Miranchuk | 38 |
| ST | Emmanuel Latte Lath | 68 |
| W | Miguel Almirón | 72 |
| GK | Lucas Hoyos | 30 |
| DM | Tristan Muyumba | 69 |
| CM | Cooper Sanchez | 13 |
| CM | Matías Galarza | 75 |
Model score 0–100 within position group; * = limited minutes. “imp” means no matching ASA contributor, so the player is not assigned a synthetic score. Lineups are report context only until an MLS historical-XI calibration gate can test a pricing adjustment.
Austin FC vs Seattle Sounders FC
Wed Jul 22, 7:30 PM Central Daylight Time · Austin FC home
Austin FC — Overall #30/30 · Att #29 · Def #28
Seattle Sounders FC — Overall #3/30 · Att #13 · Def #1
Expected goals: 1.27 – 1.55 · likely: 1-1 (12.3%) · 1-2 (9.0%) · 0-1 (8.8%)
| 1X2 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Austin FC ◇ value | 30.4% | +229 | +281 | 24.9% | +5.5% | +15.8% |
| Draw | 26.6% | +276 | +283 | 24.8% | +1.8% | +1.9% |
| Seattle Sounders FC | 43.0% | +133 | -112 | 50.3% | -7.3% | -18.7% |
| O/U 2.5 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Over 2.5 | 53.4% | -115 | -147 | 55.5% | -2.2% | -10.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.6% | +115 | +110 | 44.5% | +2.2% | -2.2% |
Lineups confirmed > projected > last used > rating baseline
Austin FC projected
| GK | Brad Stuver | 91 |
| FB | Guilherme Biro | 73 |
| CB | Oleksandr Svatok | 1 |
| CB | Brendan Hines-Ike | 55 |
| FB | Mikkel Desler | 63 |
| DM | Ilie Sánchez | 62 |
| W | Jayden Nelson | 52 |
| W | Owen Wolff | 5 |
| W | Facundo Torres | 38 |
| ST | Myrto Uzuni | 49 |
| ST | Brandon Vázquez | 79 |
Seattle Sounders FC last used
| GK | Andrew Thomas | 96 |
| CB | Jackson Ragen | 87 |
| CB | Antino Lopez | 98 |
| FB | Kalani Kossa-Rienzi | 93 |
| DM | Snyder Brunell | 91 |
| DM | Hassani Dotson | 67 |
| W | Paul Rothrock | 41 |
| AM | Albert Rusnák | 71 |
| W | Jesús Ferreira | 63 |
| ST | Jordan Morris | 93 |
| ? | Nouhou Tolo | imp |
Model score 0–100 within position group; * = limited minutes. “imp” means no matching ASA contributor, so the player is not assigned a synthetic score. Lineups are report context only until an MLS historical-XI calibration gate can test a pricing adjustment.
Nashville SC vs CF Montréal
Wed Jul 22, 7:30 PM Central Daylight Time · Nashville SC home
Nashville SC — Overall #8/30 · Att #12 · Def #3
CF Montréal — Overall #20/30 · Att #18 · Def #22
Expected goals: 1.89 – 1.13 · likely: 1-1 (10.8%) · 2-1 (9.7%) · 1-0 (8.9%)
| 1X2 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Nashville SC | 54.7% | -121 | -258 | 65.3% | -10.7% | -24.2% |
| Draw ◇ value | 23.8% | +321 | +342 | 20.5% | +3.3% | +5.1% |
| CF Montréal | 21.6% | +363 | +539 | 14.2% | +7.4% | +37.9% |
| O/U 2.5 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Over 2.5 | 58.0% | -138 | -191 | 61.1% | -3.1% | -11.7% |
| Under 2.5 ◇ value | 42.0% | +138 | +139 | 38.9% | +3.1% | +0.3% |
Lineups confirmed > projected > last used > rating baseline
Nashville SC baseline
| CB | Maxwell Woledzi | 7 |
| FB | Daniel Lovitz | 26 |
| CB | Jeisson Palacios | 46 |
| FB | Andy Najar | 35 |
| ST | Hany Mukhtar | 94 |
| W | Cristian Espinoza | 74 |
| W | Warren Madrigal | 42 |
| GK | Brian Schwake | 98 |
| CM | Matthew Corcoran | 6 |
| CM | Edvard Tagseth | 1 |
| CM | Patrick Yazbek | 77 |
CF Montréal baseline
| FB | Luca Petrasso | 23 |
| CB | Brayan Vera | 81 |
| CB | Efrain Morales | 3 |
| FB | Dawid Bugaj | 94 |
| ST | Prince Owusu | 95 |
| W | Iván Jaime | 80 |
| AM | Wikelman Carmona | 4 |
| GK | Thomas Gillier | 17 |
| DM | Victor Loturi | 3 |
| CM | Matty Longstaff | 82 |
| DM | Samuel Piette | 17 |
Model score 0–100 within position group; * = limited minutes. “imp” means no matching ASA contributor, so the player is not assigned a synthetic score. Lineups are report context only until an MLS historical-XI calibration gate can test a pricing adjustment.
Houston Dynamo FC vs D.C. United
Wed Jul 22, 7:30 PM Central Daylight Time · Houston Dynamo FC home
Houston Dynamo FC — Overall #21/30 · Att #26 · Def #8
D.C. United — Overall #22/30 · Att #22 · Def #20
Expected goals: 1.59 – 1.16 · likely: 1-1 (12.2%) · 1-0 (9.7%) · 2-1 (9.2%)
| 1X2 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Houston Dynamo FC | 46.6% | +114 | -127 | 53.0% | -6.3% | -16.5% |
| Draw | 26.5% | +278 | +279 | 25.0% | +1.5% | +0.4% |
| D.C. United ◇ value | 26.9% | +272 | +331 | 22.0% | +4.9% | +15.8% |
| O/U 2.5 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Over 2.5 | 51.9% | -108 | -136 | 53.9% | -2.0% | -9.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.1% | +108 | +103 | 46.1% | +2.0% | -2.3% |
Lineups confirmed > projected > last used > rating baseline
Houston Dynamo FC projected
| GK | Jonathan Bond | 9 |
| FB | Lawrence Ennali | 39 |
| CB | Antônio Carlos | 59 |
| FB | Felipe Andrade | 42 |
| CM | Agustín Bouzat | 38 |
| DM | Artur | 27 |
| CM | Diadie Samassékou | 13 |
| CM | Jack McGlynn | 95 |
| W | Guilherme | 76 |
| W | Mateusz Bogusz | 27 |
| ? | Duncan McGuire | imp |
D.C. United projected
| GK | Sean Johnson | 61 |
| FB | Keisuke Kurokawa | 5 |
| CB | Lucas Bartlett | 84 |
| CB | Kye Rowles | 58 |
| FB | Silvan Hefti | 41 |
| CM | Matti Peltola | 18 |
| W | Peglow | 16 |
| W | Jackson Hopkins | 7 |
| ST | Tai Baribo | 94 |
| ST | Louis Munteanu | 62 |
| ? | Andre Dozzell | imp |
Model score 0–100 within position group; * = limited minutes. “imp” means no matching ASA contributor, so the player is not assigned a synthetic score. Lineups are report context only until an MLS historical-XI calibration gate can test a pricing adjustment.
Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United FC
Wed Jul 22, 7:30 PM Central Daylight Time · Sporting Kansas City home
Sporting Kansas City — Overall #29/30 · Att #30 · Def #26
Minnesota United FC — Overall #11/30 · Att #14 · Def #16
Expected goals: 1.46 – 1.5 · likely: 1-1 (11.9%) · 1-2 (8.4%) · 2-1 (8.2%)
| 1X2 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Sporting Kansas City ◇ value | 36.2% | +176 | +272 | 25.6% | +10.6% | +34.6% |
| Draw | 26.1% | +283 | +281 | 24.9% | +1.2% | -0.5% |
| Minnesota United FC | 37.7% | +165 | -109 | 49.5% | -11.8% | -27.6% |
| O/U 2.5 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Over 2.5 | 56.5% | -130 | -188 | 61.0% | -4.6% | -13.4% |
| Under 2.5 ◇ value | 43.5% | +130 | +140 | 39.0% | +4.6% | +4.7% |
Lineups confirmed > projected > last used > rating baseline
Sporting Kansas City baseline
| FB | Jake Davis | 68 |
| FB | Jayden Reid | 46 |
| CB | Wyatt Meyer | 85 |
| CB | Ethan Bartlow | 99 |
| ST | Dejan Joveljic | 73 |
| W | Calvin Harris | 78 |
| W | Shapi Suleymanov | 2 |
| GK | John Pulskamp | 4 |
| CM | Manu García | 83 |
| CM | Lasse Berg Johnsen | 86 |
| CM | Jacob Bartlett | 9 |
Minnesota United FC baseline
| CB | Morris Duggan | 78 |
| FB | Anthony Markanich | 92 |
| CB | Jefferson Díaz | 9 |
| FB | Kyle Duncan | 76 |
| W | Joaquín Pereyra | 36 |
| ST | Kelvin Yeboah | 93 |
| W | Tomás Chancalay | 71 |
| GK | Drake Callender | 54 |
| CM | Nectarios Triantis | 73 |
| CM | Wil Trapp | 48 |
| CM | Owen Gene | 68 |
Model score 0–100 within position group; * = limited minutes. “imp” means no matching ASA contributor, so the player is not assigned a synthetic score. Lineups are report context only until an MLS historical-XI calibration gate can test a pricing adjustment.
Colorado Rapids vs San Diego FC
Wed Jul 22, 8:30 PM Central Daylight Time · Colorado Rapids home
Colorado Rapids — Overall #13/30 · Att #15 · Def #17
San Diego FC — Overall #14/30 · Att #6 · Def #25
Expected goals: 1.93 – 1.4 · likely: 1-1 (10.1%) · 2-1 (9.2%) · 1-2 (6.6%)
| 1X2 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Colorado Rapids ◇ value | 49.5% | +102 | +110 | 45.4% | +4.1% | +3.9% |
| Draw | 23.4% | +327 | +298 | 23.9% | -0.5% | -6.9% |
| San Diego FC | 27.1% | +268 | +210 | 30.7% | -3.6% | -15.8% |
| O/U 2.5 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Over 2.5 | 64.3% | -180 | -250 | 65.9% | -1.6% | -10.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.7% | +180 | +170 | 34.1% | +1.6% | -3.5% |
Lineups confirmed > projected > last used > rating baseline
Colorado Rapids projected
| FB | Jackson Travis | 40 |
| CB | Rob Holding | 83 |
| CB | Lucas Herrington | 30 |
| FB | Reggie Cannon | 28 |
| DM | Hamzat Ojediran | 6 |
| W | Darren Yapi | 58 |
| AM | Paxten Aaronson | 48 |
| W | Georgi Minoungou | 68 |
| ST | Rafael Navarro | 92 |
| ? | Nicolas Hansen | imp |
| ? | Joshua Atencio | imp |
San Diego FC baseline
| CB | Manu Duah | 88 |
| CB | Christopher McVey | 55 |
| FB | Oscar Verhoeven | 41 |
| FB | Luca Bombino | 94 |
| W | Anders Dreyer | 97 |
| ST | Marcus Ingvartsen | 78 |
| W | Amahl Pellegrino | 84 |
| GK | Duran Michael Ferree | 41 |
| CM | Onni Valakari | 97 |
| DM | Jeppe Tverskov | 94 |
| CM | Aníbal Godoy | 78 |
Model score 0–100 within position group; * = limited minutes. “imp” means no matching ASA contributor, so the player is not assigned a synthetic score. Lineups are report context only until an MLS historical-XI calibration gate can test a pricing adjustment.
Portland Timbers FC vs FC Dallas
Wed Jul 22, 9:30 PM Central Daylight Time · Portland Timbers FC home
Portland Timbers FC — Overall #23/30 · Att #23 · Def #21
FC Dallas — Overall #7/30 · Att #10 · Def #5
Expected goals: 1.55 – 1.4 · likely: 1-1 (11.8%) · 2-1 (8.6%) · 1-2 (7.8%)
| 1X2 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Portland Timbers FC | 40.2% | +149 | +149 | 38.3% | +2.0% | +0.2% |
| Draw | 26.0% | +284 | +266 | 26.0% | +0.0% | -4.7% |
| FC Dallas | 33.7% | +197 | +167 | 35.7% | -2.0% | -10.0% |
| O/U 2.5 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Over 2.5 | 56.3% | -129 | -217 | 64.2% | -7.8% | -17.8% |
| Under 2.5 ◇ value | 43.7% | +129 | +161 | 35.8% | +7.8% | +14.2% |
Lineups confirmed > projected > last used > rating baseline
Portland Timbers FC last used
| GK | James Pantemis | 89 |
| FB | Jimer Fory | 61 |
| CB | Finn Surman | 100 |
| CB | Kamal Miller | 41 |
| FB | Brandon Bye | 72 |
| DM | Cole Bassett | 99 |
| DM | Diego Chará | 55 |
| W | Ariel Lassiter | 8 |
| AM | David Da Costa | 11 |
| W | Antony | 23 |
| ST | Kevin Kelsy | 56 |
FC Dallas baseline
| CB | Shaq Moore | 54 |
| CB | Osaze Urhoghide | 70 |
| FB | Herman Johansson | 11 |
| CB | Sebastien Ibeagha | 56 |
| ST | Petar Musa | 97 |
| W | Joaquín Valiente | 10 |
| ST | Logan Farrington | 43 |
| GK | Michael Collodi | 93 |
| CM | Kaick | 55 |
| CM | Ramiro | 43 |
| CM | Christian Cappis | 56 |
Model score 0–100 within position group; * = limited minutes. “imp” means no matching ASA contributor, so the player is not assigned a synthetic score. Lineups are report context only until an MLS historical-XI calibration gate can test a pricing adjustment.
LA Galaxy vs St. Louis City SC
Wed Jul 22, 9:30 PM Central Daylight Time · LA Galaxy home
LA Galaxy — Overall #6/30 · Att #7 · Def #6
St. Louis City SC — Overall #12/30 · Att #16 · Def #7
Expected goals: 1.82 – 1.19 · likely: 1-1 (11.1%) · 2-1 (9.6%) · 1-0 (8.6%)
| 1X2 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| LA Galaxy | 51.6% | -107 | -118 | 48.6% | +3.0% | -4.7% |
| Draw | 24.4% | +310 | +263 | 24.7% | -0.3% | -11.6% |
| St. Louis City SC | 24.0% | +317 | +236 | 26.7% | -2.7% | -19.4% |
| O/U 2.5 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Over 2.5 | 57.7% | -136 | -196 | 61.5% | -3.8% | -12.9% |
| Under 2.5 ◇ value | 42.3% | +136 | +141 | 38.5% | +3.8% | +2.1% |
Lineups confirmed > projected > last used > rating baseline
LA Galaxy baseline
| CB | Justin Haak | 87 |
| FB | John Nelson | 65 |
| CB | Jakob Glesnes | 79 |
| FB | Mauricio Cuevas | 71 |
| W | Gabriel Pec | 96 |
| AM | Marco Reus | 89 |
| W | Joseph Paintsil | 90 |
| GK | JT Marcinkowski | 57 |
| DM | Edwin Cerrillo | 19 |
| CM | Lucas Sanabria | 59 |
| CM | Elijah Wynder | 61 |
St. Louis City SC baseline
| CB | Timo Baumgartl | 91 |
| CB | Dante Polvara | 69 |
| FB | Conrad Wallem | 27 |
| FB | Rafael Santos | 29 |
| AM | Marcel Hartel | 81 |
| ST | Simon Becher | 88 |
| ST | Sergio Córdova | 19 |
| GK | Roman Bürki | 72 |
| CM | Chris Durkin | 54 |
| CM | Daniel Edelman | 20 |
| CM | Miguel Perez | 57* |
Model score 0–100 within position group; * = limited minutes. “imp” means no matching ASA contributor, so the player is not assigned a synthetic score. Lineups are report context only until an MLS historical-XI calibration gate can test a pricing adjustment.
Los Angeles FC vs Real Salt Lake
Wed Jul 22, 9:30 PM Central Daylight Time · Los Angeles FC home
Los Angeles FC — Overall #5/30 · Att #9 · Def #4
Real Salt Lake — Overall #10/30 · Att #8 · Def #13
Expected goals: 1.83 – 1.26 · likely: 1-1 (10.9%) · 2-1 (9.4%) · 1-0 (8.0%)
| 1X2 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Los Angeles FC | 50.0% | -100 | -156 | 55.0% | -5.0% | -17.8% |
| Draw | 24.2% | +313 | +289 | 23.3% | +1.0% | -5.9% |
| Real Salt Lake ◇ value | 25.7% | +289 | +316 | 21.7% | +4.0% | +6.9% |
| O/U 2.5 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Over 2.5 | 59.4% | -146 | -191 | 61.3% | -1.9% | -9.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.6% | +146 | +141 | 38.7% | +1.9% | -2.0% |
Lineups confirmed > projected > last used > rating baseline
Los Angeles FC baseline
| CB | Nkosi Tafari | 73 |
| FB | Eddie Segura | 31 |
| CB | Ryan Porteous | 46 |
| FB | Ryan Hollingshead | 58 |
| W | Dénis Bouanga | 100 |
| ST | Son Heung-Min | 92 |
| AM | Timothy Tillman | 1 |
| GK | Hugo Lloris | 67 |
| DM | Mark Delgado | 93 |
| DM | Mathieu Choinière | 46 |
| DM | Stephen Eustáquio | 50 |
Real Salt Lake baseline
| FB | Zavier Gozo | 8 |
| CB | Justen Glad | 75 |
| FB | Juan Manuel Sanabria | 18 |
| CB | Philip Quinton | 66 |
| ST | Sergi Solans | 97 |
| W | Morgan Guilavogui | 85 |
| AM | Diego Luna | 65 |
| GK | Rafael Cabral | 85 |
| CM | Noel Caliskan | 28 |
| CM | Stijn Spierings | 80 |
| CM | Griffin Dillon | 48* |
Model score 0–100 within position group; * = limited minutes. “imp” means no matching ASA contributor, so the player is not assigned a synthetic score. Lineups are report context only until an MLS historical-XI calibration gate can test a pricing adjustment.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City SC
Wed Jul 22, 9:30 PM Central Daylight Time · San Jose Earthquakes home
San Jose Earthquakes — Overall #4/30 · Att #3 · Def #10
Orlando City SC — Overall #28/30 · Att #21 · Def #30
Expected goals: 2.56 – 1.2 · likely: 2-1 (9.0%) · 3-1 (7.7%) · 2-0 (7.7%)
| 1X2 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes | 66.7% | -200 | -204 | 63.5% | +3.1% | -0.7% |
| Draw | 18.1% | +453 | +423 | 18.1% | -0.0% | -5.4% |
| Orlando City SC | 15.3% | +556 | +415 | 18.4% | -3.1% | -21.4% |
| O/U 2.5 | Model | Fair | Book | Book % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Over 2.5 | 72.0% | -257 | -326 | 71.8% | +0.2% | -5.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.0% | +257 | +233 | 28.2% | -0.2% | -6.7% |
Lineups confirmed > projected > last used > rating baseline
San Jose Earthquakes baseline
| CB | Daniel Munie | 54 |
| CB | Reid Roberts | 2 |
| FB | Benji Kikanović | 23 |
| FB | Jamar Ricketts | 71 |
| W | Ousseni Bouda | 70 |
| ST | Preston Judd | 95 |
| AM | Niko Tsakiris | 46 |
| GK | Daniel | 80 |
| DM | Beau Leroux | 85 |
| DM | Ronaldo Vieira | 31 |
| DM | Ian Harkes | 73 |
Orlando City SC baseline
| FB | Iván Angulo | 37 |
| CB | Iago | 86 |
| FB | Griffin Dorsey | 27 |
| CB | Adrián Marín | 37 |
| ST | Martín Ojeda | 88 |
| W | Marco Pašalić | 52 |
| ST | Tiago | 12 |
| GK | Maxime Crépeau | 20 |
| CM | Braian Ojeda | 41 |
| CM | Eduard Atuesta | 92 |
| CM | Tyrese Spicer | 87 |
Model score 0–100 within position group; * = limited minutes. “imp” means no matching ASA contributor, so the player is not assigned a synthetic score. Lineups are report context only until an MLS historical-XI calibration gate can test a pricing adjustment.